September 2026 Freight Market Update: Ocean, Air, Trucking, Rail and Customs
Port and Terminal Capacity Add Another Layer to Import Planning
A container shipment can look straightforward when it is booked, but the plan can still change before the cargo reaches the dock. Terminal availability, vessel schedules, yard capacity and inland connections can all affect where and how a shipment is handled. In some cases, a vessel may need to discharge at a different terminal or port than originally planned, which can create a new set of details that need to be worked through quickly.
The important thing for importers to remember is that this is not necessarily a sign that every U.S. port is congested. Conditions can be very different from one terminal to another, even within the same port area. One terminal may be handling cargo normally while another is dealing with heavier vessel activity, limited yard space or scheduling constraints. That is why looking only at the broader port picture may not tell the whole story.
A change in the discharge plan can also affect much more than where the container comes off the vessel. Drayage availability, rail connections, delivery appointments, equipment, free time and final transportation costs may all need to be reviewed. If the alternate terminal uses a different process or creates a longer inland move, those changes can quickly affect the rest of the shipment.
Rail and drayage are also important pieces of the current picture. Recent data from Los Angeles and Long Beach showed rail-destined container dwell increasing even as local truck dwell improved, showing that conditions can vary depending on how cargo moves inland. Vessel arrival is only one part of the journey, so importers should look at the complete path from the ocean terminal through final delivery when planning time-sensitive cargo.
The best approach is to plan ahead and stay flexible. Confirming the expected terminal, checking inland capacity and understanding alternate routing options before the vessel arrives can help reduce surprises if the original plan changes. At Southern Star Navigation, we work closely with our partners to review those details, explore available options and help keep shipments moving when an adjustment is needed.
Suez Return and New Vessel Capacity Could Reshape 2027 Ocean Market
The container shipping market could look very different in 2027 as two major capacity factors begin to come together. BIMCO, the Baltic and International Maritime Council, says the industry could face growing overcapacity as a large number of newly ordered vessels enter service while carriers also consider a return to regular Suez Canal transits. A broader return to the Suez would shorten many voyages that have been rerouted around southern Africa, allowing ships to complete rotations faster and effectively adding more available vessel capacity back into the market.
If that added capacity arrives faster than cargo demand grows, it could put downward pressure on ocean rates and change how carriers manage services, sailing schedules and available space next year. At the same time, the timing of a full Suez return is still uncertain, and demand in the Middle East could also influence how the market develops. For importers planning 2027 contracts and routing strategies, both the vessel orderbook and the pace of Suez normalization will be important factors to watch.
Truckload Spot Market Sends Mixed Signals
Truckload spot market conditions were mixed in the latest weekly data. FTR reported dry van rates down just under 3 cents and reefer rates down 6 cents, while flatbed rates increased by more than 5 cents, the largest gain for this particular week since 2008. Freight volumes also increased across all three major equipment types, with dry van loads up nearly 28%, reefer loads up 14% and flatbed loads up almost 30%.
DAT’s linehaul data showed a slightly different picture, with dry van down 3 cents to $2.17 per mile, reefer up 2 cents to $2.73, and flatbed down 1 cent to $2.60. The difference between the two data sets reinforces that the market is not moving in one clear direction. Equipment type, individual lanes and freight demand continue to matter more than any single national headline as the market moves toward the fourth quarter.
Canada Moves to Reduce Port and Rail Labor Disruption Risk
Canada is taking steps to reduce the risk of major transportation disruptions as important labor agreements approach expiration at British Columbia ports and Canadian National Railway. Bill C-39, introduced in Parliament this week, is aimed at putting additional guardrails around labor disputes before they reach the point of shutting down critical freight networks. The timing is important for importers and exporters that rely on Canadian ports and rail connections for North American cargo.
The issue is worth watching because a disruption at either the ports or the railroads can quickly affect inland connections, container availability and cross-border movement. British Columbia gateways handle significant international cargo moving between Asia and North America, while CN connects those ports with major markets across Canada and into the United States. Even without an active strike or shutdown, shippers may want to keep alternate routings and contingency plans in mind as the labor deadlines get closer.
China Section 301 Filing Guidance Updated for Existing Exclusions
CBP has issued updated filing guidance for four existing China Section 301 product exclusions following changes to certain 10-digit HTS statistical reporting numbers. The exclusions themselves are not new, but the reporting numbers changed effective July 1, 2026, and the affected exclusions remain available through November 9, 2026. ACE functionality for the updated filing requirements became available at noon on September 23.
Importers with qualifying China-origin goods should make sure current entries use the revised reporting numbers. CBP also confirmed that importers who paid Section 301 duties on affected entries filed from July 1 through September 22 may be able to request a refund through a Post Summary Correction if they are still within the filing timeframe. This makes it especially important to review both current classifications and recently filed entries that may qualify for the exclusion. The practical issue is that an exclusion can remain valid even when the filing details tied to it change. That means an entry may still qualify, but using an outdated reporting number could create problems with how the exclusion is claimed. Importers should review affected classifications carefully and make sure their current filing instructions reflect the updated HTS reporting structure. Read the full update on our website
Air Cargo Demand Firms Across Asia-Pacific
Air cargo activity strengthened in the second week of September, with Asia-Pacific volumes, capacity and spot rates all moving higher. The latest market data showed chargeable weight from the region rising 4% week over week, while spot rates increased for the third consecutive week. China-to-U.S. pricing also moved higher, reinforcing the need to review airfreight by individual trade lane rather than assume the entire market is moving in the same direction.
For shippers with urgent or time-sensitive freight, the practical takeaway is to look closely at the specific origin, destination, available capacity and total transportation cost before booking. Airfreight remains a useful option when speed matters, but conditions can change quickly from one lane to another. Planning ahead and comparing the available service options can help avoid last-minute surprises as we move further into the fall shipping season.
Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern Merger Review Moves Forward
The proposed Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger cleared another procedural hurdle on September 18 when the Surface Transportation Board denied requests to summarily reject the revised application. The decision does not approve the merger or signal how the Board will ultimately rule. Instead, it keeps the review process moving forward, with formal comments on the merits due November 18.
If approved, the transaction would bring together Union Pacific’s western network and Norfolk Southern’s eastern network under common control, creating a coast-to-coast rail system. The proposal is drawing close attention from competing railroads, shippers and industry groups over questions involving competition, service, network access and the potential effect on rail customers. At the same time, current intermodal conditions remain important: rail-destined dwell at Los Angeles and Long Beach increased to 6.75 days in August, reinforcing that day-to-day rail fluidity remains a separate issue even while the industry considers a much larger structural change.
Customs Enforcement Changes Put Importer Records in the Spotlight
CBP’s enhanced Form 5106 enforcement is now active following the September 18 effective date, giving the agency authority to immediately void an Importer of Record number when required information is inaccurate or incomplete. At the same time, several additional customs enforcement requirements tied to Executive Order 14411 are still developing, including importer “good standing,” foreign importer requirements, supply chain visibility and transshipment risk.
Because these changes are moving on different timelines, Southern Star Navigation created a Customs Enforcement Resources section to keep the major developments in one place. The hub includes current guidance on Form 5106 accuracy, DDP exposure, CTPAT validation, importer good standing, transshipment risk and CBP’s broader enforcement strategy, along with interactive tools designed to help importers identify which areas may need attention.
One of the most useful places to start is the Import Partner Readiness Check, which walks through key account and documentation questions based on the requirements currently in effect. We are continuing to update the resource center as CBP publishes new guidance so importers can separate what is already active from what is still moving through the rulemaking process.
