Staying informed about key shipping & trade updates for 2025 is essential for businesses navigating global logistics. As regulations shift, new shipping routes open, and market conditions evolve, understanding these updates will help you make smarter decisions and stay competitive in the year ahead.

Potential Shipping Surcharges Loom Amid Labor Negotiations

Carriers prepare for disruptions as ILA contract deadline nears

As the January 15 deadline for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) contract extension approaches, talks are set to restart on January 7, according to sources. This leaves a tight window for negotiations before a potential strike disrupts ports along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts.

While wages for the new master contract have been agreed upon, discussions have stalled over port automation. The ILA opposes further implementation of automation technologies, including semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs), which it argues could reduce job opportunities. The USMX counters that these technologies enhance port productivity and create additional roles for longshore workers.

In anticipation of possible disruptions, major carriers have announced conditional surcharges. Effective January 20, 2025, Hapag-Lloyd plans to implement a Work Disruption Surcharge (WDS) and a Work Interruption Destination Surcharge (WID), at $850 per 20-foot container and $1,700 per 40-foot container. Similarly, Maersk will introduce surcharges ranging from $1,500 to $3,780, depending on container size. CMA CGM delays US East Coast container surcharge after report of contract talks.

Businesses should stay updated on the negotiations and work with their carriers to plan for potential delays or additional costs.

Shipping Alliances Reshape Global Routes in 2025

New networks aim to enhance efficiency and connectivity across key trade lanes

Major Shipping Carrier Updates for 2025

In 2025, major global shipping carriers are set to introduce significant changes aimed at improving trade efficiency through expanded routes and new strategic alliances.

MSC’s New East/West Network (Launching February 2025)

MSC will roll out a comprehensive network covering five major trade routes with 34 loops:

• Asia-North Europe: 7 loops
• Asia-Mediterranean: 6 loops
• Asia-North America West Coast: 4 loops
• Asia-North America East Coast: 6 loops
• Transatlantic Network: 11 loops

The Premier Alliance (Ocean Network Express, HMM, and Yang Ming)

This collaboration will focus on key East-West trade lanes, including:

• Asia-Europe: 6 services (5 in cooperation with MSC)
• Asia-North America
• Asia-Mediterranean

Gemini Alliance (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd)

The Gemini Alliance will adjust its 2025 network based on the 2024 framework, including alternative routes via Africa for greater flexibility.

ZIM and MSC Partnership (Launching February 2025)

Six new Transpacific services will be introduced, connecting:

• Asia to the U.S. East Coast
• West Coast of Mexico
• Caribbean ports
• U.S. Gulf ports

Expanded Capacity Highlights

The capacity expansion will include:

• Asia-Europe services increasing from 17 to 24
• Asia-Mediterranean services growing from 9 to 17
• Transpacific routes increasing by 7, reaching a total of 54

These updates reflect the shipping carriers’ commitment to enhancing global trade flexibility, connectivity, and efficiency. The expanded networks will provide shippers with more routing options and the potential for reduced transit times across key trade lanes.

U.S. Brands Scramble for New Fulfillment as Mexico Imposes Tariffs

New Tariffs on Textiles and Apparel Shake Up Supply Chains

Mexico recently introduced significant tariff increases on textile and apparel imports, shaking up supply chains for many U.S. brands. As of December 20, 2024, a 35% import duty now applies to over 130 finished garment products, while a 15% duty was added to certain raw textile materials. These changes aim to protect Mexico’s domestic textile industry from low-cost imports, but they’ve left U.S. e-commerce sellers and apparel brands scrambling to adjust their strategies.

For years, Mexico has been a critical hub for U.S. businesses, especially those importing from Asia and leveraging fulfillment centers in border cities like Tijuana to avoid higher tariffs on direct shipments from China. However, the new tariffs, combined with stricter limits on duty-free imports under Mexico’s IMMEX program, are disrupting this workaround. Brands that relied on Mexico for cost-effective fulfillment are now facing rising operational expenses and reconsidering their logistics setups.

Many U.S. companies are responding by exploring alternative solutions. Some are shifting their fulfillment operations back to the U.S., despite higher labor costs, while others are considering Canadian third-party logistics (3PL) providers to continue taking advantage of duty-free cross-border shipments under Section 321. Others are reevaluating their sourcing strategies altogether, opting for direct imports to the U.S. and absorbing the domestic tariffs, which may still be more affordable than Mexico’s new rates.

This shake-up serves as a reminder that global trade policies can shift quickly, forcing businesses to stay agile. As Mexico’s tariffs remain in effect through April 2026, U.S. brands will need to stay informed, diversify their supply chains, and work closely with logistics partners to avoid disruptions and keep costs manageable.

Trans-Pacific Shipping Rates Surge Ahead of Lunar New Year

Pre-holiday demand and potential labor disruptions drive spot rate increases

As the Lunar New Year approaches on January 29, 2025, U.S. retailers are experiencing a significant rise in trans-Pacific shipping costs. Spot rates have escalated to levels unseen since the peak shipping season in August, propelled by a surge in pre-holiday cargo volumes and concerns over potential labor disruptions.

Carriers successfully implemented a substantial increase in spot rates on December 15, with fees rising by nearly $1,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Further hikes are anticipated on January 1, potentially elevating rates to approximately $6,000 per FEU for West Coast ports and $7,000 per FEU for East Coast destinations. This upward trend is largely attributed to U.S. importers expediting shipments to ensure arrival before Asian factories shut down for the two-week Lunar New Year holiday.

The looming expiration of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) contract extension on January 15, 2025, adds another layer of urgency. Fears of a strike or work stoppage at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports have led retailers to front-load shipments, aiming to avoid potential disruptions. This strategy has intensified demand for shipping services, further contributing to the escalation of spot rates.

Industry analysts note that while the current surge is notable, it reflects a combination of seasonal demand and strategic shipping adjustments in response to labor uncertainties. Retailers and importers are advised to monitor the situation closely, maintain communication with carriers, and consider flexible shipping plans to navigate this period of heightened rates and potential port disruptions.

Intermodal Shipping Reflects on a Strong 2024 with Challenges Ahead

Growth on the West Coast slows while new opportunities arise inland

The intermodal sector experienced robust growth in 2024, fueled by surging international freight volumes to West Coast ports. Demand grew over 30% on routes like Los Angeles to Chicago and Dallas, but operational challenges arose, including higher container dwell times at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. Domestic intermodal saw modest growth, with peak season surcharges returning for the first time in three years, ranging from $250 to $1,250 per load. Service expansions, like expedited trains and New Mexico–U.S. Southeast routes, capped off a dynamic year.

In 2025, growth is expected to shift toward the East Coast, driven by labor stability and inland expansion opportunities. While international intermodal volumes may plateau on the West Coast, inland routes like Atlanta to Chicago and Dallas to Chicago offer potential for growth. Domestic intermodal may also see gains if trucking becomes less accessible, and rail services remain reliable. Success will depend on balancing West Coast stability with growth in other regions.

New Section 321 ACE Warning to Launch in January

CBP’s automated warning system aims to streamline compliance

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is set to deploy the second phase of the Section 321 enhancement in the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) on January 11, 2025. This update introduces a warning system that alerts users when aggregated shipments may exceed the $800 de minimis threshold per person per day. These warnings, provided through electronic messaging, will help shippers address potential compliance issues proactively. Businesses have been testing the feature since December 11, 2024, to ensure readiness for the upcoming release.

This enhancement is part of CBP’s broader efforts to manage the growing volume of low-value shipments driven by e-commerce. A third phase, scheduled no earlier than February 11, 2025, will withhold ineligible shipments exceeding the threshold until proper entries are filed. By providing clear warnings and phasing in enforcement, CBP aims to make the de minimis exemption process more efficient while reducing delays for compliant shipments. Businesses are encouraged to review their systems and processes ahead of these changes.

PHMSA Releases Updated Lithium Battery Guide for Shippers

New guidelines enhance safety for lithium battery transport across all modes

The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) has finalized its updated Lithium Battery Guide for Shippers, providing comprehensive instructions for safely transporting lithium cells and batteries across all modes, including maritime shipments. The guide features scenario-based shipping instructions, highlights the latest regulatory updates, and offers detailed guidance on packaging, labeling, and hazard communication. Special considerations for vessel transport are also included, addressing both domestic regulations and the International Maritime Dangerous Goods (IMDG) Code.

This resource underscores PHMSA’s commitment to addressing safety risks associated with lithium battery shipments, including fire hazards. Shippers can easily navigate the guide to find specific requirements based on battery configurations, Watt-hour ratings, and transportation modes. By enhancing clarity and incorporating the most up-to-date regulations, the updated guide supports safe and efficient lithium battery transportation while meeting the growing demand for these critical energy storage devices. For more details, you can access the guide here: PHMSA Lithium Battery Guide for Shippers.

US Warehouse Vacancies Expected to Tighten in 2025

Rising demand and shifting logistics networks point to a turning point

Warehouse vacancy rates in the U.S. peaked in 2024 as shippers rebalanced inventories after the “Great Destocking” of 2023, providing ample industrial space across the country. The average vacancy rate for logistics and manufacturing properties climbed to 6.8%, the highest since before the pandemic. However, certain regions, like Southern California’s Inland Empire, experienced a reversal in this trend, with vacancy rates dropping as e-commerce and logistics firms sought new space. While demand remained soft overall, average rents held steady, and some developers saw increased utilization of logistics facilities built during the pandemic to enhance resiliency.

Looking ahead, the dynamics of warehouse demand are expected to shift as U.S. manufacturing gains momentum and freight volumes rise. Developers predict tightening capacity in 2025, driven by booming e-commerce, shorter delivery expectations, and growth in manufacturing near the U.S.-Mexico border. Some providers have already warned customers of rising rents and limited availability, urging early commitments to secure space. The coming year could mark a turning point for the logistics sector, with shippers and warehouse users preparing for a more competitive market as supply and demand realign.

Egypt Completes Suez Canal Expansion Trial

New extension boosts capacity and efficiency amid economic challenges

Egypt has successfully completed the trial run of a 10-kilometer extension at the southern end of the Suez Canal. This expansion increases the canal’s two-way section from 72 to 82 kilometers and adds capacity for six to eight more ships daily. The enhanced channel also improves navigational safety by reducing the impact of air and water currents, ensuring smoother passage for vessels. These improvements aim to bolster the canal’s role as a vital artery for global trade, offering faster transit times and shorter waiting periods for southbound convoys.

Despite these advancements, Egypt faces significant economic pressures. Suez Canal revenues dropped by over 60% in 2024 due to geopolitical tensions, including Red Sea attacks on shipping vessels. The extension underscores Egypt’s commitment to maintaining the canal’s strategic importance, even as regional instability poses challenges. By increasing efficiency and capacity, the canal remains a crucial link in global maritime logistics, benefiting trade routes, including those connecting Asia to the United States.

Marine insurance is crucial for businesses involved in shipping goods internationally. It provides comprehensive coverage that safeguards shipments against various risks and uncertainties during transit by sea, air, or land. This type of insurance is essential for ensuring that businesses can recover financial losses from potential damage or loss of cargo.

Importance of Marine Insurance:

• Protection Against Financial Loss: Covers the cost of goods lost or damaged during transit, ensuring businesses do not bear the financial burden alone.
• Risk Management: Helps manage and mitigate risks associated with transportation, including natural disasters, accidents, and piracy.
• Peace of Mind: Provides reassurance that goods are protected, allowing businesses to focus on operations without worrying about potential losses.
• Legal Compliance: Often a requirement in international trade contracts, ensuring that businesses meet legal and contractual obligations.
• Comprehensive Coverage: Includes protection against various risks such as theft, fire, and other perils specific to maritime transportation.

For more information, call Southern Star Navigation at 833.782.7628

or email: [email protected]

Let’s Navigate Success Together in 2025!

As global trade continues to shift, staying informed is key to keeping your business moving forward. Whether you’re adjusting to new tariffs, planning for potential port disruptions, or optimizing your shipping routes, Southern Star Navigation is here to support you every step of the way.

📞 Call us today at 1-833-782-7628 Ext. 1 or visit southernstarnavigation.com to explore how we can help you stay ahead in the new year.