US Freight Outlook 2026 | Trade Enforcement, Shipping & Logistics Trends
CBP Trade Enforcement Reaches Record Levels
U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported collecting more than $200 billion in duties, taxes, and tariffs so far in 2025, marking one of the highest enforcements-driven revenue totals on record. The figures reflect increased oversight across imports, stronger use of trade data, and broader enforcement of existing tariff measures. The results highlight how active enforcement remains a central part of today’s trade environment.
CBP continues to rely heavily on advanced data analytics to identify violations tied to undervaluation, misclassification, improper country of origin claims, transshipment, and misuse of tariff exemptions. These tools allow CBP to flag high risk shipments earlier in the process and focus enforcement efforts where revenue loss and compliance gaps are most likely to occur. The approach is designed to protect lawful trade while holding noncompliant activity accountable.
Throughout the year, CBP addressed a wide range of tariff evasion cases, including unpaid antidumping and countervailing duties, improper use of Section 232 and reciprocal tariff exemptions, and failures to pay assessed duties and fees. Enforcement actions also included debarments and follow up investigations tied to revenue-focused allegations submitted by the trade community. These actions reinforce the importance of accurate documentation and consistent compliance practices.
For importers and logistics partners, the takeaway is clear. Strong enforcement and rising revenue collection signal that compliance expectations are not easing. Companies that invest in correct classification, valuation, and internal controls are better positioned to avoid delays, penalties, and unexpected costs. The trade statistics below provide a snapshot of how import volumes and revenue collection have trended over recent fiscal years and underscore why compliance remains a critical part of supply chain planning. Learn More:
DOJ Signals Tougher Stance on Tariff Evasion
The U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to significantly increase enforcement actions tied to tariff evasion, signaling a more aggressive approach to trade fraud investigations. This shift reflects growing concern over revenue loss, unfair trade practices, and repeated misuse of tariff programs. Federal agencies are placing greater focus on identifying patterns of intentional noncompliance rather than isolated filing errors.
Tariff evasion can take many forms, including undervaluation, misclassification, false country of origin claims, transshipment through third countries, and improper use of tariff exemptions. These practices are increasingly detected through coordinated data reviews and cross-agency analysis. As enforcement tools become more advanced, schemes that previously went unnoticed are now more likely to be flagged earlier in the import process.
The Department of Justice works alongside U.S. Customs and Border Protection on these cases, particularly where there is evidence of willful or repeated violations. While CBP typically leads administrative enforcement and duty recovery, DOJ involvement raises the stakes by introducing potential civil or criminal consequences. This coordinated approach allows agencies to pursue cases that extend beyond simple duty collection.
For importers and supply chain partners, this enforcement shift highlights the importance of internal controls and accurate trade data. Documentation gaps, inconsistent classifications, or unsupported exemption claims can now draw greater scrutiny, especially when patterns emerge across multiple entries. Companies with strong compliance programs are better positioned to respond quickly and reduce exposure if questions arise.
As trade enforcement continues to tighten, transparency and accuracy remain critical. Ongoing monitoring of filings, proactive reviews, and awareness of enforcement trends can help businesses avoid costly disruptions. The focus is increasingly on prevention, not just correction, as agencies aim to protect lawful trade and ensure fair competition. For additional context on enforcement activity and trade trends, CBP trade statistics are available on the cbp.gov website.
Learn More: Visit CBP’s official tariff evasion investigations and enforcement resources.
US Freight Industry Enters 2026 With Low Growth Expectations
As the US freight industry heads into 2026, growth expectations remain muted across most major sectors. After several years of uneven demand, import container volumes have moved into contraction, surface freight demand has softened, and carriers and shippers alike are bracing for another slow year. Forecasts from economic analysts point to flat or slightly down container volumes next year, and truckload and less-than-truckload operators are preparing for continued modest demand rather than robust expansion.
Air cargo volumes have also shown signs of pullback, with year-over-year declines reported through much of 2025. Intermodal traffic has been a bright spot, rising at a modest pace, but its growth alone is unlikely to offset weakness in other parts of the network. Despite the trade headwinds, broader economic forecasts still expect the overall US economy to grow in 2026, though at a slower pace than in recent years. This mixed picture reflects the complexity of current demand drivers and continues to shape planning across the freight ecosystem.
One significant factor behind the softer freight outlook is inventory behavior. After a period of aggressive frontloading of imports, many US retailers and importers have chosen to keep inventories lean. Inventory levels expanded only slightly in late 2025, and rising carrying costs have encouraged companies to avoid excess stock. Changes in consumer behavior, including signs of reduced spending, compound these inventory pressures. Manufacturers and logistics teams are watching these trends closely, as unsold goods can lead to production adjustments and further dampen freight activity.
Another influence on freight demand is housing and manufacturing activity. Data from late 2025 showed a decline in new housing starts and a slowdown in manufacturing orders, both of which traditionally contribute to freight volumes. While some domestic freight demand tied to reshoring of production may support longer-term activity, near-term momentum remains tied to broader economic conditions, consumer confidence, and cost pressures across supply chains.
Import and export flows further illustrate the uneven landscape. US containerized imports are expected to be lower in 2026 than in prior years, and forecasts indicate notable year-over-year declines in early months of the year. Port operators are planning for flat or slightly lower volumes, and some major gateways are adjusting budgets accordingly. Meanwhile, exports have shown surprising resilience, with containerized export volumes rising in 2025. This divergence highlights the evolving trade balance and emphasizes the need for freight stakeholders to remain adaptable as demand patterns continue to shift.
India-US Trade Remains Resilient
Trade between India and the US continues to hold steady even as tariffs remain in place on certain goods. Recent data shows that shipment volumes and trade values have not dropped in a meaningful way, suggesting that businesses on both sides are adjusting rather than pulling back. Key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, machinery, and industrial goods are still moving at consistent levels, supported by strong underlying demand and diversified supply chains.
At the same time, momentum is building toward a potential free trade agreement between the two countries. Negotiations are focused on reducing tariffs, improving market access, and strengthening long-term trade cooperation. While no final agreement has been announced, ongoing discussions are helping support confidence among exporters and importers, who are planning ahead with the expectation of smoother trade conditions once a deal is reached.
Air Cargo Rates Stay Steady
Air cargo rates are holding steady as the industry moves toward the end of the year, with pricing supported by controlled capacity and consistent demand on key trade lanes. While volumes are not surging across the board, demand remains stable enough to prevent major rate drops. Carriers are closely managing available space, keeping a balance between supply and demand as shippers continue to move time-sensitive and high-value goods by air.
To support this balance, airlines are fine-tuning capacity by adjusting freighter schedules and belly space rather than adding large amounts of new lift. Some routes are seeing small increases where demand is stronger, while others are being scaled back to avoid oversupply. This approach is helping carriers protect yields while giving shippers more predictable pricing and space availability as planning continues into the new year.
Rail Service Rebounds to End 2025
US rail service is closing out 2025 in a stronger position after working through earlier disruptions that affected reliability and transit times. Network fluidity has improved as railroads addressed congestion issues, adjusted operating plans, and stabilized workforce levels. On time performance has shown steady gains across major corridors, helping restore confidence for shippers that rely on rail for long-haul and intermodal moves.
This improved performance is also supported by better coordination with ports and trucking partners, allowing freight to move more smoothly between modes. With volumes leveling out and fewer unexpected service interruptions, rail providers are entering the new year with more predictable operations. The recovery highlights how focused operational changes can help rail networks regain momentum after periods of strain.
CBP Updates ACE Disposition Codes
US Customs and Border Protection has issued an update to the ACE CAMIR Ocean and Rail Import Manifest Appendix D that adds two new disposition codes tied to container seals. The new codes are D2, which indicates CBP has added a seal to a container, and D3, which indicates CBP has deleted or removed a seal. These notifications will apply to both Ocean and Rail shipments and will generate automated messages in ACE when CBP takes action on a container seal.
This change is part of a future ACE enhancement and is important for importers, carriers, brokers, and operations teams that monitor manifest messages and container status. Understanding these new codes will help teams avoid confusion when reviewing alerts and ensure seal-related updates are correctly interpreted as CBP actions rather than data errors or carrier issues.
Read More: Download the official CBP ACE Ocean and Rail CAMIR Appendix D Disposition Codes document.
Non-Domiciled CDL Rules Divide Trucking
Enforcement around non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses is creating a clear divide within the US trucking industry. Regulators are increasing scrutiny on how these licenses are issued and used, focusing on residency requirements, documentation standards, and compliance with federal rules. Supporters of stricter enforcement say it helps protect safety, prevents misuse of licensing systems, and ensures a level playing field among carriers that follow the rules.
Others in the industry warn that tighter enforcement could reduce available driver capacity at a time when trucking is already under pressure. Smaller fleets and owner-operators are especially concerned about disruptions, delays, and added administrative burdens. As enforcement actions expand, carriers are closely watching how rules are applied across states, knowing the outcome could reshape hiring practices, capacity planning, and long-term workforce stability in the US trucking sector.