Global Shipping Outlook 2026: Rates, Contracts & Trade Trends
Why Reliability, Not Rates, Will Shape Shipping in 2026
As 2026 gets underway, the global shipping market isn’t heading toward a dramatic collapse in freight rates, even with large amounts of new vessel capacity coming online. While rates are expected to soften slightly, the bigger shift this year is how shippers are thinking about risk. After years of disruptions, tariff uncertainty, and unstable transit times, many companies are placing more value on consistent service than on chasing the lowest possible price.
Rather than focusing only on cost, shippers are increasingly prioritizing reliability, schedule integrity, and carrier performance. Delays are no longer seen as occasional problems but as a structural part of the supply chain environment. This has changed how procurement teams approach contract negotiations, with more emphasis on service levels, space commitments, and operational visibility instead of just rate benchmarks.
One of the key pressure points continues to be port capacity, especially in Asia. Major Chinese ports like Shanghai and Ningbo are experiencing ongoing congestion as export volumes remain strong and vessel sizes continue to grow. Larger ships mean more containers per call, putting additional strain on terminals, trucking, rail, and inland networks that were not designed for this scale of throughput.
Even if global trade lanes normalize and some routes reopen, the core bottleneck is shifting from the ocean to the land. Infrastructure limitations, labor constraints, and port productivity challenges mean that adding more ships does not automatically translate into smoother supply chains. For many shippers in 2026, the real competitive advantage will come from working with partners who can deliver predictable, dependable service in an increasingly complex logistics environment.
Ocean Alliance Expands Southeast Asia Connections to North America for 2026
Ocean Alliance carriers are rolling out a revised North America network in 2026 that adds more direct connections from Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent, reflecting how sourcing patterns continue to shift away from China. The updated network, which takes effect in April, keeps the same overall number of services as 2025 but changes port rotations to better align with where cargo is actually moving. Vietnam stands out as the biggest winner, with Haiphong gaining several new trans-Pacific calls to both the U.S. West Coast and East Coast.
The changes also include the Ocean Alliance returning to the Port of Jacksonville giving Gulf Coast shippers another direct option from Asia. At the same time, some China calls are being adjusted rather than eliminated, showing that China remains important, but no longer dominates growth the way it once did. Overall, the 2026 network highlights a clear trend: carriers are following shipper demand into Southeast Asia, while spreading risk across more countries and ports instead of relying heavily on a single sourcing region.
Buyer’s Market for US Importers Comes With Hidden Risks
Right now, many US importers are walking into contract negotiations with more leverage than they’ve had in years, as softer demand and added vessel capacity put pressure on ocean pricing. Contract rate levels are clearly starting lower than they did last year, and smaller shippers in particular are under intense pressure to cut transportation costs. On paper, it looks like a straightforward buyer’s market, especially for companies that source heavily from Asia and are trying to offset rising tariff costs.
But despite falling volumes, carriers have so far managed to keep the market from sliding too far. Through a mix of blank sailings, controlled capacity, and steady rate management, ocean pricing has shown more stability than many expected. That means shippers who push aggressively on contract rates or rely too heavily on the spot market could still face surprises if conditions tighten later in the year. In short, the market may feel soft today, but carrier discipline suggests this cycle is less about rock-bottom pricing and more about balancing cost savings with long-term reliability.
U.S. Signals Stronger Economic and Trade Stance at Davos
At the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, the United States used the global stage to outline a more assertive economic and trade posture, emphasizing growth, domestic investment, and stronger transatlantic engagement. The message centered on reinforcing U.S. leadership in global markets, promoting industrial strength, and aligning economic policy with national security and energy priorities. For international partners, the speech signaled that the U.S. intends to play a more active role in shaping trade relationships and economic frameworks in 2026 and beyond.
From a supply chain perspective, this type of positioning can influence several key areas, including tariff policy, energy costs, currency stability, and long-term trade agreements. When major economies publicly commit to reshaping trade and investment strategies, it often leads to shifts in sourcing decisions, manufacturing investment, and global freight flows. For shippers and logistics providers, the takeaway is not the politics, but the signal: economic policy and trade rules are likely to remain fluid, and businesses should continue planning for a market where flexibility, compliance, and risk management remain critical. Read More (White House Article)
Norfolk Southern Reopens Second Louisville Terminal to Ease Congestion
Norfolk Southern is reopening its Buechel Intermodal Facility in Louisville on January 26 to help relieve congestion at its primary terminal, Appliance Park. The move comes after truck delays and long wait times built up in late 2025 and early 2026, driven by high container volumes, holiday slowdowns, and operational changes. Buechel, which had been idled for several years, is being brought back online to provide additional capacity and improve traffic flow in one of the railroad’s busiest inland markets.
Once fully operational, Norfolk Southern will split import and export activity between the two terminals to simplify operations. Import containers will be handled at Buechel, while export containers will continue to move through Appliance Park. By separating inbound and outbound flows, the railroad aims to reduce bottlenecks, shorten truck turn times, and improve overall reliability for drayage providers and shippers moving cargo through the Louisville region.
Canada’s Port Saint John Completes Major $178M Terminal Upgrade
Canada’s Port Saint John has completed a $178 million modernization project that significantly expands the port’s role as a growing East Coast gateway. The multi-year investment upgraded terminal infrastructure, equipment, and operating systems, increasing container capacity from about 150,000 TEUs to as much as 1 million TEUs annually while improving overall terminal efficiency. The project also strengthens intermodal connectivity, with direct access to three Class I railroads through regional rail partners, making it a more attractive option for shippers seeking uncongested alternatives. The timing aligns with Canada’s broader push to diversify trade and invest in inland transport corridors, reinforcing a wider trend across North America where infrastructure, reliability, and routing flexibility are becoming just as important as freight rates.
CBP Updates U.S. Tariff Overview with Expanded Context
U.S. Customs and Border Protection latest Tariff Overview infographic continues a recent trend of providing more centralized, high-level guidance directly to the trade community. The updated overview consolidates active tariff programs under IEEPA and Section 232, highlights applicable rates by country and product category, and reinforces that exemptions, eligibility for drawback, and unstacking rules must be reviewed carefully for each shipment. CBP also continues to emphasize that the document is informational and does not replace the underlying Executive Orders or Presidential Proclamations.
Compared with earlier versions, this update places greater emphasis on clarity around how multiple tariff programs interact, particularly where Section 232 and IEEPA duties overlap. The infographic continues to outline where certain tariffs do not stack, how country-specific agreements affect rates, and where exemptions apply, such as for civil aircraft, certain pharmaceuticals, or USMCA-originating goods. For importers, the update reinforces the importance of accurate HTS classification, origin analysis, and documentation, especially as tariff structures remain complex and subject to ongoing policy adjustments. Download Tariff Resources
CBP Enhances Duty Calculation Validation in ACE
U.S. Customs and Border Protection has implemented an enhancement in the ACE certification environment that strengthens duty calculation validation on entry summaries. When testing in CERT, filers will now see specific condition codes if the estimated duty provided does not match the system-calculated duty, both at the line level and for the total entry. This applies to entry summaries that include up to 32 Harmonized Tariff Schedule codes on a single line.
CBP has confirmed this enhancement is scheduled to move into the ACE Production environment on February 17, 2026. Importers and brokers should use this advance window to review duty calculation logic, especially for complex entries with multiple HTS classifications. While the change is technical, it reinforces CBP’s focus on data accuracy and could lead to more immediate identification of duty discrepancies once live in production.
Air Cargo Volumes Rebound Early in January
Air cargo demand showed a quick rebound in the first full week of January, with volumes running about 5% higher than the same period last year. The increase follows the typical year-end slowdown and reflects shippers returning to airfreight for speed and reliability after the holidays. While the early January lift is a positive signal, it is still too early to tell whether this momentum will hold through the rest of the quarter.
The outlook remains uncertain as global trade lanes continue to adjust to ongoing disruptions, particularly around Red Sea routing. Changes in ocean transit times, capacity shifts, and cost pressures can push more freight into air, but those patterns have been uneven and highly sensitive to broader market conditions. For now, January’s rebound suggests resilience in air cargo demand, but shippers should continue planning with flexibility as conditions evolve.
Transportation Costs Continue to Rise Beneath the Surface
New data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows that transportation-related producer costs increased 2.2% year over year as of November 2025, highlighting continued cost pressure across freight modes even as market rates have softened. Truck transportation posted the largest increase, with costs rising more than 4% compared to last year, while air and rail services saw more modest increases and water transportation remained relatively stable. These figures reflect the costs faced by transportation providers and industries purchasing transportation services, including labor, equipment, and operating expenses.
While shippers have seen improved leverage in some rate negotiations, this data underscores why pricing relief has been uneven and why carriers remain cautious in how aggressively they discount. Transportation costs also accounted for over 12% of the overall increase in producer costs across the economy, reinforcing that freight remains a meaningful inflation input. For shippers, this is an important reminder that while market conditions may favor negotiation in the near term, underlying cost structures continue to influence carrier behavior, capacity decisions, and long-term pricing strategies.
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