Tariff Countdown & Summer Port Chaos Will July 9 bring new costs? Get the latest on global logistics, EU port delays, NATO freight shifts, and more.

Reciprocal Tariffs: Countdown to July 9

The 90-day pause on U.S. reciprocal tariffs ends July 9th. If trade agreements aren’t finalized by then, the current 10% rate could jump sharply for many U.S. trading partners. Depending on the country, some tariffs could climb as high as 50%. This would affect thousands of imported goods and could push up costs for importers in nearly every industry.

Canada has made it clear that if the U.S. raises tariffs, it plans to raise its own in return. The European Union is also taking a strong position. Ursula von der Leyen told EU member countries they must stand firm together and push for a trade deal that protects European exporters. With no agreement yet, businesses that import from Europe should start reviewing their sourcing and planning now.

Talks between the U.S. and India have stalled over agricultural trade. Both sides are holding firm, and there’s been no sign of progress. Japan is in a holding pattern as well, with a national election coming later this month, any deal before then is unlikely. This gives importers very little time to react if tariffs snap back into place after July 9th.

Negotiations are more active in Southeast Asia. Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam have all submitted trade proposals and are working through the details with U.S. officials. Vietnam’s leaders say they are hopeful a deal will be done before the deadline. Still, nothing has been finalized, and timing is tight for everyone involved.

If these deals fall through, companies could face higher duty rates, shipment delays, or last-minute compliance headaches. This is not just a pricing issue, it affects how goods are classified, routed, and cleared through customs. Any company moving freight internationally should have a backup plan ready.

At Southern Star Navigation, we’re helping importers prepare for both scenarios, whether deals are made or not, by reviewing tariff classifications, trade lanes, and exposure ahead of the July 9th deadline.

NATO Summit Signals Major Investment in Logistics and Defense Infrastructure

The NATO summit held in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 24–25, 2025, marked a major turning point for transportation and logistics planning within the alliance. Leaders agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with 1.5% of that total dedicated specifically to infrastructure. That means more funding will go toward roads, bridges, ports, and airfields that support the rapid movement of military forces across borders. The remaining 3.5% will be applied to defense operations, including military aid, training, and equipment. For companies involved in logistics, this signals more movement, more planning, and more opportunity.

Ahead of the summit, NATO’s Logistics Committee met to prioritize updates to the alliance’s Logistics Action Plan. They emphasized the importance of increasing rail capacity, securing reliable fuel supplies, and reinforcing pre-positioned stockpiles across Europe. There was also strong focus on medical logistics, maintenance coordination, and improving host nation support programs. These systems are designed to ensure troops and equipment can move quickly and efficiently between countries when needed, without delays at borders or gaps in supply.

One of the clearest signals from the summit was that NATO is aligning its military strategy with infrastructure investment. The focus is no longer just on readiness, but on how fast resources can be moved in real time. For freight partners, this means ports may see more coordinated schedules, road corridors may receive priority upgrades, and cross-border transport may become more tightly regulated under alliance-wide agreements.

Europe’s Container Ports Are in a Summer Gridlock

If you rely on European ports, this is the time to pay close attention. Congestion is worsening across major EU gateways like Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges, and Hamburg. These key trade hubs are now facing serious delays, some lasting up to three full days. The ripple effects are impacting trucking schedules, inland barge transport, and even air freight as some shippers start shifting cargo to avoid long wait times.

At Rotterdam, labor slowdowns and full yards are forcing vessels to anchor offshore for longer than expected. Antwerp is backed up too, with some terminals hitting capacity and intermittent worker strikes making matters worse. Hamburg is seeing stack congestion and crane delays as it absorbs overflow traffic from nearby ports. Terminal efficiency has dropped, and space is limited across the board.

Carriers are making changes quickly to avoid the worst ports. Maersk already removed Rotterdam from its Atlantic TA5 rotation, and others are looking at alternative ports in Northern Europe. Inland transport routes are also struggling, with low water levels on the Rhine River affecting barge movement. All of this adds up to increased costs and delayed delivery times for companies counting on smooth cargo flow through Europe.

Some ports in Eastern and Southern Europe, including Felixstowe, Valencia, and Gdansk, are starting to receive overflow volume as shippers look for faster options. However, these ports are now seeing increased pressure as well, and available space is tightening. With peak season approaching, companies are advised to book early, double-check their carrier schedules, and stay flexible on routing when possible.

At Southern Star Navigation, we are working closely with clients to help reroute cargo, reduce dwell time, and stay ahead of this summer’s European port congestion.

NMFC Updates Coming July 19 Will Shake Up LTL Freight

On July 19, 2025, the NMFTA will introduce major changes to the NMFC system. The updates shift the focus toward a density-based model, meaning most shipments will now be classified based on weight per cubic foot instead of just the product type. A new 13-tier density scale will replace the current 11-tier structure. Thousands of commodities will be reorganized into broader groups, with many moving into simplified classes like 50 or 55. Items that require special handling, have higher risk, or are harder to stack will still be treated separately with clear classification exceptions.

These changes are expected to affect freight rating, cost calculations, and how LTL shipments are packed. Denser, compact freight may qualify for lower rates, while lighter or bulky shipments could be assigned higher classes and pricing. If your business relies on LTL shipping, now is the time to double-check your package sizes, weights, and current classifications. Reviewing this information before the changes take effect will help avoid surprises. At Southern Star Navigation, we’re already preparing by updating client profiles, reviewing codes, and getting ready to support partners through the transition.

Strait of Hormuz at High Alert, But Not Shut

Iran’s parliament recently voted to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. and Israeli strikes, marking a serious escalation. The strait remains open for now, as Iran’s national security council must still give the final go-ahead. Most analysts expect any closure would be targeted, such as deploying sea mines or missiles, and likely temporary. Full-scale disruptions are not seen as imminent, but the situation remains volatile.

Shipping companies are already rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid risk zones, which adds up to 12 days to delivery times. Marine insurance premiums for tankers and freighters in the region have jumped, adding significant cost. European and global supply chain networks are considering strategic alternatives, including rerouting freight through the Mediterranean and adjusting inventory forecasts. The ripple effects are being felt in fuel pricing, schedule planning, and route strategy, making logistics planning more complicated than ever.

EU Cracks Down on Massive Import Fraud Ring

Authorities across Europe have uncovered a large customs fraud network involving illegal imports of e-bikes, scooters, textiles, and other goods. Raids took place in Greece, Spain, France, and Bulgaria, with officials seizing over 100 containers, millions in cash, weapons, and luxury cars. The network, reportedly led by Chinese nationals, used fake invoices and documentation to avoid paying more than €700 million in duties and VAT. Ten individuals were arrested, including two customs officers. Investigators believe the goods were funneled through the port of Piraeus in Greece before being distributed throughout the European Union.

This discovery is expected to bring tighter enforcement across key European ports. Companies involved in importing, forwarding, or customs brokerage should prepare for more inspections, longer clearance times, and closer review of documents and declared values. Ports handling high-volume consumer goods like electronics and apparel will likely see the greatest impact. Shippers are encouraged to review their customs practices, confirm product classifications, and ensure that all origin records are accurate to avoid penalties or delays during this period of heightened oversight.

Railroads Respond to Service Failures and Security Risks

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) has admitted to service issues following a system change on May 3rd. The switch from Kansas City Southern’s platform to CP’s caused major disruptions at terminals in Texas, including Wylie and Laredo. Problems weren’t with the trains but with tracking, billing, and switching operations. Truckers faced long waits, and some customers pulled freight off the network. On-time performance dropped sharply, and CPKC has since launched internal task forces and committed to weekly updates for U.S. regulators until service is fully restored.

Union Pacific (UP) will launch a new insurance program on July 1st that offers up to $250,000 in cargo theft protection. To qualify, shippers must use secure locks, avoid plastic seals, and follow strict documentation rules, including detailed photos. The added coverage brings UP in line with BNSF but comes with a $100 per-container fee. As cargo theft grows more organized and frequent, UP hopes the enhanced protection gives customers peace of mind, though some are concerned about the extra work and logistics required.

Mexico’s New Export Rule Starts July 7

Starting July 7, 2025, Mexico will require exporters to request an Automatic Export Notice (AEN) before shipping about 30 kinds of goods. The list includes items like laptops, telecom gear, engine parts, beer, tequila, medical tools, and fiber-optic cables. This rule was published in Mexico’s Federal Official Gazette on June 3rd.

Exporters must email their application to the General Directorate of Trade Facilitation and Foreign Trade, including an Excel form, a signed letter (following Rule 1.3.5), ID, and representation documents. Requests open June 30th, and customs needs the approved notice before releasing any shipment. The agency has up to 10 business days to respond. Shipping without it could lead to delays or export refusals, and this applies even to IMMEX maquiladora programs.

Some believe this change is a response to companies lightly assembling or packaging goods in Mexico, then declaring a Mexico of origin when the real manufacture happened elsewhere. This new notice gives authorities more visibility and control over the final export designation.

Here’s what you should do now:

It is crucial to build in at least two weeks of lead time ahead of your first July shipment for the notice to be processed. If the shipment is late or cleared without the AEN, customs may hold it or refuse it outright.

👉 Here is the official notice link from the Ministry of Economy and DOF:

At Southern Star Navigation, we’re ready to support you through this change and make sure your exports stay on track.